IMPI Hinges 14% Year-End Inflation Forecast on Deep Analysis of Tinubu Reforms

Akinsiju

By KEMI KAYODE‎

‎The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has attributed its successful forecast of a 14 per cent inflation by the end of the year to a painstaking analysis of President Bola Tinubu’s economic policies in the last year.

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‎In a statement signed by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI argued that while the President himself projected an ambitious 15% inflation rate in his 2025 budget speech, its analysts were convinced in September that the country would do better using a Predictive Regression (PR) analysis.

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IMPI said: “When in September we initially projected a drop in inflation by the end of 2025 to 17 percent it was based on a trend analysis of the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) reports issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) since the beginning of the year in relation to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

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‎”But we were forced to review our position downwards, barely a month later, in our policy statement 031 issued in October, when we established a stronger pattern of increased productivity and general price reduction with higher intensity beginning from August 2025.

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‎”So with the benefit of a new set of data available to us via the Predictive Regression (PR) model of statistical analysis, we concluded that a 14 per cent inflation rate was a more realistic figure before the end of the year than the earlier projected 17 per cent.

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‎”We were able to establish a consistent pattern of increased productivity and general price reduction with higher intensity beginning from August 2025.